Modeling the Complexity of Road Accidents Prevention: A System Dynamics Approach

Alex Kizito, Agnes Rwashana Semwanga

Source Title: International Journal of System Dynamics Applications (IJSDA)9(2)

ISSN: 2160-9772|EISSN: 2160-9799|EISBN13: 9781799807940|DOI: 10.4018/IJSDA.2020040102

MLA

Kizito, Alex, and Agnes Rwashana Semwanga. "Modeling the Complexity of Road Accidents Prevention: A System Dynamics Approach." IJSDA vol.9, no.2 2020: pp.24-41. http://doi.org/10.4018/IJSDA.2020040102

APA

Kizito, A. & Semwanga, A. R. (2020). Modeling the Complexity of Road Accidents Prevention: A System Dynamics Approach. International Journal of System Dynamics Applications (IJSDA), 9(2), 24-41. http://doi.org/10.4018/IJSDA.2020040102

Chicago

Kizito, Alex, and Agnes Rwashana Semwanga. "Modeling the Complexity of Road Accidents Prevention: A System Dynamics Approach," International Journal of System Dynamics Applications (IJSDA) 9, no.2: 24-41. http://doi.org/10.4018/IJSDA.2020040102

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Abstract

Simplistic representations of traffic safety disregard the dynamic interactions between the components of the road transport system (RTS). The resultant road accident (RA) preventive measures are consequently focused almost solely on individual/team failures at the sharp end of the RTS (mainly the road users). The RTS is complex and therefore cannot be easily understood by studying the system parts in isolation. The study modeled the occurrence of road accidents in Uganda using the dynamic synthesis methodology (DSM). This article presents the work done in the first three stages of the DSM. Data was collected from various stakeholders including road users, traffic police officers, road users, and road constructors. The study focused on RA prevention by considering the linear and non-linear interactions of the variables during the pre-crash phase. Qualitative models were developed and from these, key leverage points that could possibly lower the road accident incidences demonstrating the need for a shared system wide responsibility for road safety at all levels are suggested.